For the FIFA world cup, Paul the octopus has been predicting the
winner of each match with amazing success. It is rumored that in a match
between 2 teams A and B, Paul picks A with the same probability as A's
chances of winning. Let's assume such rumors to be true and that in a
match between Ghana and Bolivia, Ghana the stronger team has a
probability of 2/3 of winning the game. What is the probability that
Paul will correctly pick the winner of the Ghana-Bolivia game?

• Here probability of Ghana is 2/3. The octopus also should have same probability in selecting Ghana as winner which is 2/3. So total probability of selecting the right team (winning team) by the octopus is (2/3)(2/3)=4/9. If Ghana has 2/3 chances, Bolivia will have 1-2/3=1/3 chances(Assuming that a tie is not possible). So octopus also has 1/3 chances of selecting Bolivia. So total probability for Bolivia would be (1/3)(1/3)=1/9. Any team can win the match. So total probability is 4/9+1/9=5/9
• 12 years agoHelpfull: Yes(16) No(0)
• (2/3)*(2/3)+(1/3)*(1/3)=5/9
  
  Answer= 5/9
• 12 years agoHelpfull: Yes(3) No(0)
• (2/3*2/3)+(1/3*1/3)=5/9
• 8 years agoHelpfull: Yes(0) No(0)
• probability of wining ghana =(2/3)*(2/3)
  probability of wining bolivia=(1/3)*(1/3)
  probability of correctly winner is 4/9+1/9=5/9
• 8 years agoHelpfull: Yes(0) No(0)