For the FIFA world cup, Paul the octopus has been predicting the winner of each match with amazing success. It is rumored that in a match between 2 teams A and B, Paul picks A with the same probability as A's chances of winning. Let's assume such rumors to be true and that in a match between Ghana and Bolivia, Ghana the stronger team has a probability of 2/3 of winning the game. What is the probability that Paul will correctly pick the winner of the Ghana-Bolivia game?
a) 1/9
b) 4/9
c) 5/9
d) 2/3

• 2/3*2/3+1/3*1/3
  5/9
  
• 14 years agoHelpfull: Yes(46) No(6)
• Paul picks A with the same probability as A’schances of winning
  So probability of picking a winner = prob picking of ghana * ghana winning + prob picking of bolivia * bollivia winning
  = 2/3 * 2/3 + 1/3 * 1/3
  = 5/9
• 13 years agoHelpfull: Yes(33) No(0)
• Ghana team winning probability =2/3 =Bolivia team losing probability
  Ghana team losing probability = 1-2/3 =1/3 =Bolivia team winning probability
  Total probability = (2/3*2/3)+(1/3*1/3) = 5/9
  
• 12 years agoHelpfull: Yes(11) No(0)
• explain this please!!!
• 14 years agoHelpfull: Yes(6) No(5)